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  1. Concurrence of monthly variations of mortality related to underlying cause in Europe.

    Article - En anglais

    Study objective

    The study aimed to examine the concurrence in the variation of monthly numbers of deaths in summer and winter from the four main underlying causes - respiratory, circulatory, neoplastic, and all others - in four countries.


    Mortality data were analysed graphically in relation to cause.

    Each of the four series of monthly data underwent time series analysis to remove autocorrelation, seasonality, and secular trends.

    Associations between paired causes of death and between multiple series (using Kendall's coefficient of concordance) were then examined after modelling.


    Monthly deaths (65 years and over) related to underlying cause were examined for England and Wales (nine years), The Netherlands (nine years), Denmark (10 years), and Portugal (10 years - all ages).

    Weekly data for England and Wales (51 weeks) were also analysed.

    Main results

    All combinations of monthly deaths related to underlying cause were strongly associated in all four countries.

    This concurrence was evident down to the lowest monthly values so that all seasonally related deaths above the minimum monthly value can be used as an estimate of the « concurrent » proportion.

    Associations involving deaths from neoplasm were weakest.

    Concurrence was evident even on a weekly analysis.

    Concurrent deaths in England and Wales accounted for 31.1% of respiratory, 16.0% of circulatory, 3.5% of neoplastic, 14.1% of deaths from other causes, and 14.2% for all deaths combined.

    Mots-clés Pascal : Mortalité, Variation mensuelle, Appareil circulatoire pathologie, Appareil respiratoire pathologie, Tumeur maligne, Epidémiologie, Royaume Uni, Pays Bas, Danemark, Portugal, Homme, Europe

    Mots-clés Pascal anglais : Mortality, Monthly variation, Cardiovascular disease, Respiratory disease, Malignant tumor, Epidemiology, United Kingdom, Netherlands, Denmark, Portugal, Human, Europe

    Logo du centre Notice produite par :
    Inist-CNRS - Institut de l'Information Scientifique et Technique

    Cote : 95-0479824

    Code Inist : 002B30A01A2. Création : 01/03/1996.