In the United States, the elderly account for over one third of health care spending.
The total population over the age of 65 is projected to increase, as is life expectancy beyond the age of 65.
We studied current patterns of Medicare expenses according to age at death and the possible effect of future demographic changes on Medicare spending.
We used data from the Medicare program to estimate lifetime Medicare expenses for a sample of 129,166 beneficiaries, 65 or older, who died in 1989 and 1990, according to age at death.
Spending for nursing home care not covered by Medicare was excluded.
The payments associated with an additional year of life and the average annual payments over an enrollee's lifetime both decreased as the age at death increased.
The estimated 7.9 percent increase in life expectancy beyond 65 years that will have taken place between 1990 and 2020 was associated with an estimated increase of 2.0 percent in lifetime Medicare payments.
Of the estimated $98 billion increase in total lifetime payments (in 1990 dollars) from the 1990 group to the 2020 group, 74.3 percent was due to the larger size of the original birth cohort who will reach the age of 65 in 2020,22.5 percent to an increase in the proportion of that birth cohort projected to survive to 65 years of age, and 3.2 percent to improved life expectancy beyond 65.
The effect on Medicare spending of increased longevity beyond th.
Mots-clés Pascal : Longévité, Effet consécutif, Economie santé, Coût social, Epidémiologie, Homme, Amérique du Nord, Amérique
Mots-clés Pascal anglais : Longevity, After effect, Health economy, Social cost, Epidemiology, Human, North America, America
Notice produite par :
Inist-CNRS - Institut de l'Information Scientifique et Technique
Cote : 95-0319236
Code Inist : 002B30A01A2. Création : 01/03/1996.