In the studies of the HIV epidemic, most of the risk factors are assumed to be unknown, fixed parameters.
In realty, however, most of these factors are subjected to random variation.
To assess the effects of randomness of risk factors, in this paper we develop a stochastic model for the HIV epidemic in homosexual populations to generate some Monte Carlo studies.
The results reveal that if the number of infective people is not to small, then randomness of the number of different sexual partners per unit time, randomness of the probability of condom use, and randomness of the transition rates of infective stages have little effect, if any, on the HIV epidemic.
However, the Monte Carlo studies show that deterministic models in general provide poor approximations to the mean numbers of stochastic models in most of the cases.
Mots-clés Pascal : Théorie, Epidémiologie, Virus, Risque santé, Processus aléatoire, Probabilité, Méthode Monte Carlo, Théorie approximation, Evaluation risque, Modèle mathématique
Mots-clés Pascal anglais : Chain multinomial distribution, Risk factor randomness, HIV epidemic, Theory, Epidemiology, Viruses, Health risks, Random processes, Probability, Monte Carlo methods, Approximation theory, Risk assessment, Mathematical models
Notice produite par :
Inist-CNRS - Institut de l'Information Scientifique et Technique
Cote : 96-0027318
Code Inist : 001A02. Création : 01/03/1996.