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  1. Das Lee-Carter-Modell zur Prognose der Sterblichkeit in der Bundesrepublik Deutschland.

    Article - En allemand

    Traduction en anglais : The Lee-Carter model for forecasting mortality in the Federal Republic of Germany.

    A model for forecasting mortality developed by Lee and Carter is applied to data of West Germany.

    The logs of the age-specific death rates are modeled as a linear function of an unobserved mortality index using the singular value decomposition method.

    The forecasts are based on projections of all individual trends of the mortality rates.

    Applied to life expectancy at birth between 1969 and 1992 the model implies an increase of 2.2 years in life expectancy for men and 2.4 years for women in 2002.

    Mots-clés Pascal : Mortalité, Modèle prévision, Homme, Allemagne(république fédérale), Espérance vie, Allemagne, Europe

    Mots-clés Pascal anglais : Mortality, Forecast model, Human, West Germany, Germany, Europe

    Logo du centre Notice produite par :
    Inist-CNRS - Institut de l'Information Scientifique et Technique

    Cote : 95-0593777

    Code Inist : 002B30A01A2. Création : 01/03/1996.