To assess the likely impact on HIV incidence of increased condom use, a reduction in casual sexual partners, treatment programmes for other sexually transmitted diseases (STD) and combinations of these in rural Uganda.
A simulation model for the transmission dynamics of HIV infection and STD was employed, drawing on data from a rural population cohort in South-West Uganda with an HIV prevalence of 9% among adults in 1990.
For the scenario most consistent with data from the study population, 39% of all adult HIV infections were averted, in the 10 years from 1990, when condoms were used consistently and effectively by 50% of men in their contacts with one-off sexual partners (such as bar girls and commercial sex workers).
Reducing by 50% the frequency of men's sexual contacts with one-off partners averted 68% of infections.
Reducing by 50% the duration of all STD episodes averted 43% of infections.
Combining these three interventions averted 82% of all adult infections in the 10 years from 1990.
A substantial proportion of HIV infections may be averted in general populations through interventions targeted only on less regular sexual partnerships.
Mots-clés Pascal : SIDA, Virose, Infection, Modèle simulation, Incidence, Transmission, Virus immunodéficience humaine, Lentivirinae, Retroviridae, Virus, Programme sanitaire, Ouganda, Afrique, Homme, Zone rurale, Epidémiologie, Immunopathologie, Immunodéficit
Mots-clés Pascal anglais : AIDS, Viral disease, Infection, Simulation model, Incidence, Transmission, Human immunodeficiency virus, Lentivirinae, Retroviridae, Virus, Sanitary program, Uganda, Africa, Human, Rural area, Epidemiology, Immunopathology, Immune deficiency
Notice produite par :
Inist-CNRS - Institut de l'Information Scientifique et Technique
Cote : 95-0589208
Code Inist : 002B06D01. Création : 01/03/1996.