The present communication is an attempt to describe the mode of propagation of AIDS epidemic and its control programme using a branching process as well as a birth-death and immigration model.
A comparison of the project of AIDS control programme on the basic of its propagation by a continuous branching process model with that of a linear birth and death process with immigration shows a remarkable contrast.
Branching process model shows that it is possible to control the propagation of the disease by suitably increasing the detection rate and lowering the infection rate.
However, the propagation of AIDS models by birth and death Process with or without immigration shows that it in increasingly difficult to control the invasion of AIDS merely by controlling the birth, death and immigration parameters.
Mots-clés Pascal : SIDA, Virose, Infection, Epidémiologie, Programme contrôle, Propagation, Modèle mathématique, Processus naissance mort, Immigration, Processus branchement, Homme, Immunopathologie
Mots-clés Pascal anglais : AIDS, Viral disease, Infection, Epidemiology, Checking program, Propagation, Mathematical model, Birth death process, Immigration, Branching process, Human, Immunopathology
Notice produite par :
Inist-CNRS - Institut de l'Information Scientifique et Technique
Cote : 95-0394643
Code Inist : 002B06D01. Création : 01/03/1996.