This paper presents an application of a formal process for encoding experts'probabilistic judgments.
The objective is to characterize scientific judgment regarding the risk of chronic lung injury to children aged 8 through 16 and to adult outdoor workers due to long-term ozone exposure in areas with patterns of exposure similar to those found in Southern California and the Northeast.
Our measure of injury is the incidence of mild or moderate lesions in the centriacinar region of the lung.
Probabilities over population response rates were elicited from six health experts actively researching ozone-induced lung injury.
We describe our approach, present some judgmental probability distributions over the population response rates for formation of lesions induced by exposure to ozone, summarize some qualitative results, and offer some concluding comments.
Mots-clés Pascal : Ozone, Toxicité, Chronique, Appareil respiratoire pathologie, Poumon, Enfant, Homme, Adulte, Exposition professionnelle, Evaluation, Risque, Expertise médicale, Organisme réglementation, Etats Unis, Amérique du Nord, Amérique, Estimation probabiliste, Gaz, Relation dose réponse, Méthodologie
Mots-clés Pascal anglais : Ozone, Toxicity, Chronic, Respiratory disease, Lung, Child, Human, Adult, Occupational exposure, Evaluation, Risk, Medical expertise, Regulatory institution, United States, North America, America, Probabilistic assessment, Gases, Dose activity relation, Methodology
Notice produite par :
Inist-CNRS - Institut de l'Information Scientifique et Technique
Cote : 95-0320204
Code Inist : 002B03L02. Création : 01/03/1996.